An Historical Review and Analysis of Colombian Guerrilla Movements: FARC, ELN and EPL

Colombian guerrilla movements have increasingly been associated with illicit activity and terror. This paper is divided into two main sections. The first section traces the roots of the FARC, ELN and EPL guerrilla movements and describes how traditional Marxist-style guerrilla groups became more associated with crime and kidnapping than political ideals. The second turns to the economics literature to explain the observed guerrilla behavior relating it to traditional guerrilla movements, organized crime and extortion.Guerrilla movements, illicit activity, organized crime

AN HISTORICAL REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF COLOMBIAN GUERRILLA MOVEMENTS

Colombian guerrilla movements have increasingly been associated with illicit activity and terror. This paper is divided into two main sections. The first traces the roots of the movements and describes how traditional Marxist-style guerrilla groups became more associated with crime and kidnapping than political ideals. The second turns to the economics literature to explain the observed guerrilla behavior relating it to traditional guerrilla movements, organized crime and extortion.Guerrilla movements, illicit activity, organized crime

A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019

Abstract: This paper continues a research born in 1993 as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the escalation of violence in Colombia; its objective is to create an econometric model capable of forecasting the path of terrorist murder under different policy options and helping the country in the design of state policy drawing the lineaments for reaching the pacification of the country. I claim that the approach presented here is the only way of creating an econometric model for terrorist murder in Colombia. In the first part I use The Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series to estimate the cyclical component of murder, which is used later to construct a theoretically and statistically satisfying model to account for cyclically motivated terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. The variables that together account for eighty three percent of the variation in cyclical terrorist murder are the years of Colombia’s La Violencia period when the peasant self-defense movements appeared, the years of the so-called National Front political collusion between the two main establishment parties, the real trade balance, the size of Colombia’s military forces as a proxy for all armed forces (military, para-military, guerrilla, and drug-related) in the country, the unemployment rate, the number of students matriculated in all modalities and people displaced in the country. The forecasts for cyclical terrorist murder for 2003-2004 show the big dilemma facing the Colombian authorities: the strong reduction of displaced people from 212,000 in 2003 to 117,000 in 2004 boosted the cyclical terrorist murder in the countryside, erasing the initial results by president Uribe’s administration at controlling the intensity of the conflict and implying that any future policy at diminishing it should control the number of displaced people, one of the biggest problems facing Colombia today. The final section presents forecasts for 2005-2019 suggesting, that peace will be attained around year 2008 and, that the way, at this point to reach sustainable peace is through the continuation of the Democratic Security Policy and strong presidential leadership headed towards disarmament of all armed actors in the country combined with the implementing of political and social changes that will secure lasting peace before year 2019.Colombia; Beveridge and Nelson; cyclical terrorist murder; democratic security policy; sustainable peace; permanent peace; lasting peace

The agrarian question and violence in Colombia: conflict and development

This article examines connections between Colombia’s internal armed conflict and agrarian questions. It pays attention to the country’s specific historical trajectory of agrarian change, the violent expression of social tensions that this elicited, and the particular ways in which these dynamics were influenced by a changing global context.This analysis of the intimate ties between violent conflict and agrarian questions in Colombia, both in terms of their historical development and their contemporary manifestations, challenges popular notions of the relationship between armed conflict and development. In particular, the article contributes to a critique of the conventional version of the conflict–development nexus by illustrating ways in which the experience of capitalist development in Colombia has been violent and produced poverty

ANTI-DRUG POLICIES: ON THE WRONG PATH TO PEACE

The objective of this research is to analyze why drug prohibition policy is the observed outcome on the international political arena and its effects on the Colombian conflict. A gravity model based on Akerlof (1997) is implemented to examine the international drug policy equilibrium of a game that shows how drug prohibition is a stable suboptimal policy. Finally, this work suggests how applying a less restrictive regulatory framework to the drug market can lead to a reduction on the rents obtained by illegal groups from the drug business and, therefore, to a reduction on the intensity of the Colombian conflict.Drugs rents, Gravity model, Colombia, Conflict resolution

Disarming charisma? Mayoralty, gender and power in Medellín, Colombia

The ‘Urban Century’ has seen a rise in power of cities, and the emergence of city mayors as significant political actors both nationally and globally. The power of city mayors, which unifies pragmatic, techno-managerial leadership with the authority and legitimacy of public office, invites a reappraisal of the gendered construction of power in the ‘Urban Century’, and the particular notions of hegemonic masculinity that city mayors recreate. This article explores the example of Medellín, Colombia, whose mayor Sergio Fajardo is widely regarded to have stewarded the city's rapid reduction in violence. Fajardo's leadership can be characterised as typical of the phenomenon of smart, cosmopolitan, charismatic mayors who are seen to respond professionally to local needs by making smart investment decisions and attracting international capital. The emergence of a techno-managerial mayor in the city of Medellín, which during the 1990s was the epicentre of Colombia's multi-faceted conflict with the highest homicide rate in the world, represents a fundamental change to the identity and gender of power in a context of violent conflict where legitimate authority in terms of a monopoly on the use of force, was fiercely disputed. I use this example to explore how mayoral power is gendered and how it relates to violence, which is central to liberal theories of leadership and the focus of the feminist critique of them. The possibility that such a character attain power indicates underlying changes in the gendered structure of political space, including the institution of a Sub-Secretariat for Women and formalisation of participation in political process

Conflict and violence in rural Latin America

Latin America;agrarian reform;rural areas;violence;conflicts

Europe: Neither Plan Colombia, nor Peace Process--From Good Intentions to High Frustrations. Working Paper Series, Vol. 2 No. 7, June 2002

(From the introduction). At the same time, a clear message was sent that Europe wanted to distance itself as much as possible from the Plan Colombia, understood as a project centered around counter-insurgency and security issues. After a brief period of uncertainty and the successful and hopeful attempts to revive the Peace Process, the European diplomacy seemed to have its role strengthened from a rank of mere observer to a status of participant in brokering the Peace Process, which was on the verge of collapse in early January 2002. The renewal of the process was then credited to the role of the international community, with heavy European involvement. However, apprehension, pessimism, and a certain degree of realism finally set in the minds of European leaders in view of the decision by President Andrés Pastrana of Colombia to terminate the peace process on February 20, 2002. Considering the continuation of the violent activities perpetrated by the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), culminating with the kidnapping of Eduardo Gechem Turbay, a prominent Colombian senator, Pastrana ordered the Colombian troops to enter the territory previously awarded as sanctuary. (4) Meanwhile, under the new Bush administration, U.S. opinion had already shifted toward a more hard line attitude, as former Clinton administration officials reflected in timely columns. (5) Editorials endorsed President Bush’s attempts to make U.S. support more effective. (6) These published opinions confirm that many U.S. elite had significantly shifted toward the idea of more active participation in the Colombian conflict, sidelining the peace negotiations as an apparent result of the attacks of September 11. “Terrorism” was the code word widely used, replacing “counter-insurgency strategy” and “curtailing narco-trafficking” which was the original framework sold to Congress to justify the need for Plan Colombia. The Colombian government began to lobby energetically for the use of U.S. counter-drug trafficking resources in the anti-insurgency activities, equating the fight against the FARC to the military offensive against Al Qaeda. (7) In public statements, the White House limited its position to the parameters outlined by Congress in the fight against drugs. (8

Cartoons and economics: general analysis based on colombian economic cartoons.

May cartoons be considered as a viable and credible source for the study of economics? There is hardly any research on the subject, even though there is a quite significant amount of cartoons with economic content. This suggests that economics (and economists) have not paid enough attention and do not incorporate in their analysis a relevant primary source. The present paper aims to explore the value of using cartoons as a complementary primary source in economic analysis. We present a way of analyzing economic history through cartoons; first, reviewing cartoons which describe particular historical circumstances and second, examining cartoons that represent generic economic situations and are not necessarily linked to a historical period. We choose 17 cartoons, from different cartoonist, especially Colombian cartoonists that may give us an idea of economic matters and economic history.Cartoons, economic history, Colombia, economic cartoon